Sudden thoughts

During my study on some foundamental statistic, finance and risk related issue, I randomly pick up the book that I am currently reading "A mathematician plays the market" and start reading a page taking about "confirmation bias".  It stated that people tends to search for information that supports their own belief and neglect those that are against them.  I believe there may be some minorities who may unintentionally search for info that are against them while ignoring those that favours them. Anyway still, the info that these people grasp are definitely bias.  Even there are wiser people who tend to read info with different standpoint, yet I believe due to the structure of human brains, they tend to have better memory on info that are favour their view.  That means the info is skewed either to the right or left if they are being classified upon favourness to ones thought.
The only way to minimize "confirmation bias" on the selected piece of info, it is important for us to organize the info and its implications to us via a scientific way.  Maths and statistic are one of the less non bias mean to help us to do so, despite it may have its only limitation.

Current watching - Thor

Thor movie - secret/ extra ending
Don't leave and stay tune

Current watching - Hanna

It talks about a girl who is genetic changed before her birth, which she is made to be better in controlling her emotion,  not to be fear, not to feel pity and muscular...

This makes me think that actually huge difference could be made in decision making if one can slightly control their emotion, fear and sense of pity better.

Btw, having a short discussion on the first chapter of my current reading "the mathematician plays the market" with someone, I start to realize the beauty of being trained with mathematuc mindsets, esp mindset of pure mathematics.  This is really a huge difference in seeing and previewing the world and incidents around u or even making a logical decision.  start to appreciate the real beauty of maths.

Current listening - 誰願放手

曾某年某一天某地　時間如靜止的空氣

你的不羈給我驚喜　曾說同你闖天與地

曾說無悔今生等你　也不擔心分隔千里

多少歡樂常回味　天空中充滿希冀

祈求再遇上　不放棄不逃避

今天失落才明白　默默道理

越是懷念你　越怕沒法一起

誰得到過願放手　曾精彩過願挽留

年年月月逝去越是覺得深愛你

如果失約在這生　毋需相見在某年

完完全全共醉一生也願意

(完完全全共醉他生也願意)

來這年這一天這地　重見曾似相識的你

笑得輕鬆中帶傷悲　談你談我的新趣味

無法忘記當天的美　你的關心不過演戲

Current Reading - A Mathematician plays the Market

Chapter 1 - Anticipating other Anticipations

This chapter illustrate how one has to anticipate other investors' anticipate the common knowledge or even anticipations of other investors' view/ anticipations in the stock market via various examples.

I would say it's more on behaviour investment, which is always uneasy to anticipate.

Various conclusions of the examples illustrated in this chapter only ride on an assumptions that all participants are rational beings while they anticipates how other acts towards others anticipations on other investors or response towards a mutual and common knowledge.

Unfortunately, in the real stock market, not all investors are rational.. they believe they were, but they may be fooled by the market information and environment, which they may result in acting irrationally.

Besides, not all information are publicized. When common knowledge is announced, there exists a institutional investor (i.e. I-banks and Fund house) who already see these information as mutual or common knowledge among themselves. While these institutional investors are the majority investors of the stock market, hence when these "common knowledge" are publicized to all investors, actually not only the stock prices have reflected this information, but also institutional investors already anticipates the response of the minority of small investors. To a certain extend, it's a tool to fool the minority individual investors so that institutional investors could either put the stocks to them at a very high price, or buy the stocks at a very low price from them.

To conclude, I believe there is no way for individual investors to beat the institutional investors or to easily anticipated their behaviour/ anticipations due to asymmetrical information/ "common knowledge". The only way an individual investor could gain from the stock market is to think like an institutional investor by anticipating how they anticipates the economy, the stock/ company to be invested, the reaction of other minority investors, and their next action towards any possible variables. Only by thinking or anticipating like an institutional investor and acting like one of them, so can an individual investor make a slim profit from the stock market.

To be continued...

Completed Reading - 二十幾歲就定位

"二十幾歲就定位"

"拿回自己對人生的主控權，而非一直受人左右使自己的未來搖擺不定。"

"為自己的人生負責"
"自己的事情要由自己做決定"
"相信自己能力和自己選擇的自信心理"
"你的一生，除了自己，誰也不能為你負責"
"有責任感，敢作敢當、勇往直前"

This is some of the quotes from the book.

It's highly recommended to those who are in their 20s, who just get out from university or start their career for several years and who are still struggling for their goal, life and mission.

In the 90s and early 00s, people who born in the 50s or 60s commented that those who born in the 70s are not tough enough as they grow in era that are free from war and start their career in the blossoms of the 90s, which they never experienced the hardships that most of the 50s/ 60s have faced.

Nowadays, people criticised the post 80s of being naive, unrealistic, idealism etc... and most importantly they didn't know what they are really looking for...
Money? Early retirement?  Materialistic?  Dream?
Most of the post 80s are still searching for what they're really hunting for...
as they are born in the era of "lost"...

Most of the post 80s are lost, hence they are looking for money so that they could buy stuff like thought they like (i.e. Iphones, Gucci etc), going for trips, eating nice and delicious food, and hoping for an early retirement life, which are actually trends created or led by the minorities who can earn a profit from all these....
Who really know what they want?  I believe only the minorities of the post 80s have some clues to it.  Some decide to work in the performing art industry, while some insists to pursue the dream of being a musician, artist or scientist... for those who success, are usually those who know what they really want and fight towards their goal...

Post 80s are raised by being spoon feed since young.  They are taught to study and revise for examination in order to promote to high school and university.  Only those who can survive in this system could earn the chance of getting a higher education, which most of us believe these people will gain a higher chance of success in their future career or at least earn more than the norm.
Unfortunately, most of them who perform well in the public examination are unable to find their own personal goal apart from the desire to achieve as much A-grade as possible in their examination in order to move forward.

As a result, upon graduation from university, what they know is to continue working in the professional field that is equivalent to their uni curriculum i.e Doctor, Lawyer, Auditor, Engineer etc, without realizing if that is exactly what they want to be.  All they know is they could generate stable high income from their professionals.  Another option is to join the civil servant to serve the community despite these youngsters deeply complained about their bureaucratic, irresponsible and useless government.  What they know is the stable high income given by the government that covers their eyes.  Apart from these two options, the remaining ones seek for investment banking or fund related jobs.  What they all know is the huge bonus given by these institutions, while neglecting the damages/ harm that were created by these financial institutions i.e the Financial Tsunami

There is always no right or wrongs in choosing what one wants.  Yet, what we should think deeply is what do we really want for life.  Simply money? Simply enjoyment generating by materialisation?  Or does life mean more than that?

Knowledgeable life?   Fruitful life?  Happy moments with family and your beloved during a very normal chat/ home dinner?  Pursuing your real dream - to help the others, to do art/ music, to play sports, to do maths, to understand the philosophy and to better understand the world?

All we need, no matter you belonged to the post 80s or not, is to get control of your life.  It's you who can decide what you want for your life and to be responsible for what you've decided.  Once you make up your mind, go ahead without turning back.

We would be the most powerful beings to change our world and life when we found ourselves.

Current Reading - HSBC 2012

HSBC is one of the favourite stocks and banks in HK, especially for the people who born in the 50s and 60s.  One of the major reasons for such phenomena is because HSBC has been a trustworthy bank in the 80s which has been growing together with the HK people.

Economy environment changes vividly, which business expands locally to regionally and to globally.  HSBC slogan, "The worlds local bank", has deeply expressed this.  Besides, the change of financial game rules since the bloom of stock market has lead to various changes in lots of business including HSBC.  "Managing growth" has become the ultimate goal for lots of business in order to push their stock price, yet is it possible for a business to grow continuously non-stop?  Should a company aim at "managing business" rather than "managing growth"? 

HSBC has been expanded globally recently, from London and Hong Kong, to Asia-pacific like China, India, Indonesia, and even Bangladesh, as well as to other regions such as North America, Africa etc.  It successfully "managing growth", but how does it perform while "managing business"?

And what's next for HSBC to continue to "managing growth" after expanding their traditional banking business (i.e. commercial banking and personal banking e.g. loans) over the globe?  Expanding geographically is one of the means, while expanding in product and business lines would be the next.

In 2010, HSBC experiences a record low in ten years of $33.  Is HSBC still a great company for long-term investment?

This book has provided opinions and directions to evaluate HSBC.  Stay tune.